July 24, 2021

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2021 U.S. Open odds: Surprising PGA picks, golf predictions from top model that called six majors

6 min read

Household names like Brooks Koepka (2017, 2018), Jordan Spieth (2015), Rory McIlroy (2011) and Dustin Johnson (2016) have won the U.S. Open in recent years, but this major has also seen its fair share of upset winners. Gary Woodland pulled off a stunner in 2019, while Martin Kaymer (2014) and Webb Simpson (2012) are among the other long shot winners. The 2021 U.S. Open is set to tee off Thursday from Torrey Pines Golf Course, and golf bettors are scouring the US Open 2021 field to find the best values.

The 2021 U.S. Open odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Jon Rahm as the favorite at 10-1. The No. 3 player in the world is followed by Johnson (16-1), Koepka (18-1) and defending champion Bryson DeChambeau (18-1) on the PGA odds board. Which 2021 U.S. Open sleeper picks should you target, and how should you formulate your 2021 U.S. Open power rankings? Before locking in any 2021 U.S. Open picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the 2021 U.S. Open predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour last June. In fact, it’s up well over $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the Masters in April, McClure nailed Jon Rahm’s (+250) top-five finish, as well as Corey Conners’ (+550) top-10 showing. McClure’s best bets netted over $450 at the Masters.

In addition, McClure was all over Daniel Berger’s win at +1400 in his best bets at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. McClure also nailed Viktor Hovland’s (+2500) victory in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. That was one of many huge calls he’s made in the past several months. He also finished profitable at the 2020 U.S. Open, nailing two of his best bets, including a +1100 top-five bet on Matthew Wolff.

This same model has also nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2021 U.S. Open field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 U.S. Open leaderboard and 2021 U.S. Open expert picks.

The model’s top 2021 U.S. Open predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the U.S. Open 2021: DeChambeau, the defending U.S. Open champion and one of the top favorites, struggles and fails to crack the top 10. DeChambeau has been one of the hottest players on tour this season, finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2020 U.S. Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The eight-time PGA Tour champion has been explosive off the tee this season, ranking first in driving distance at 322.5 yards, but those long bombs haven’t been regularly finding the fairway. In fact, he ranks 178th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy (54.63 percent). He only has one top-10 finish since March and finished outside the top 30 in the three majors since his U.S. Open win last year. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the 2021 U.S. Open field.

Another surprise: Patrick Cantlay, a massive 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the 2021 U.S. Open title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Cantlay has been playing extremely well this season, securing his fourth career PGA Tour victory at the Memorial Tournament in his last start. He’s recorded a total of five top-10 finishes this season and finished on top of the leaderboard at the Zozo Championship last October.

Cantlay has been able to secure those positive results thanks in large part to his sensational iron play. The 29-year-old enters the U.S. Open 2021 ranked in the top 25 in strokes gained approaching the green (.582), greens in regulation percentage (68.80) and strokes gained around the green (.406). He also ranks in the top 20 in a number of important statistical categories that will go a long way at Torrey Pines, including birdie average (4.31) and scoring average (70.151). 

How to make 2021 U.S. Open picks

The model is targeting four other golfers with U.S. Open odds 2021 higher than 20-1 to make a strong run at the title. Its best bets also include two massive long shots higher than 50-1 that would net any bettor an epic payday. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who will win the U.S. Open 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed six golf majors and is up well over $9,000 since the restart.

2021 U.S. Open odds

Jon Rahm 10-1
Dustin Johnson 16-1
Bryson DeChambeau 18-1
Brooks Koepka 18-1
Rory McIlroy 20-1
Jordan Spieth 20-1
Xander Schauffele 20-1
Collin Morikawa 22-1
Justin Thomas 22-1
Patrick Cantlay 25-1
Viktor Hovland 25-1
Patrick Reed 25-1
Tony Finau 25-1
Hideki Matsuyama 28-1
Tyrrell Hatton 35-1
Webb Simpson 40-1
Shane Lowry 40-1
Daniel Berger 40-1
Will Zalatoris 40-1
Paul Casey 45-1
Louis Oosthuizen 45-1
Justin Rose 45-1
Scottie Scheffler 45-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 50-1
Garrick Higgo 50-1
Cameron Smith 50-1
Phil Mickelson 50-1
Tommy Fleetwood 50-1
Abraham Ancer 60-1
Corey Conners 60-1
Joaquin Niemann 60-1
Harris English 66-1
Marc Leishman 66-1
Sung-Jae Im 66-1
Adam Scott 66-1
Jason Kokrak 70-1
Sam Burns 80-1
Gary Woodland 80-1
Lee Westwood 80-1
Sergio Garcia 80-1
Max Homa 90-1
Bubba Watson 100-1
Brian Harman 100-1
Branden Grace 100-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 100-1
Charley Hoffman 100-1
Billy Horschel 125-1
Ryan Palmer 125-1
Garrick Higgo 125-1
Kevin Streelman 125-1
Russell Henley 125-1
Matt Wallace 125-1
Stewart Cink 125-1
Si-Woo Kim 125-1
Kevin Na 150-1
Robert Macintyre 150-1
Sebastian Munoz 150-1
Cameron Champ 150-1
Matthew Wolff 150-1
Carlos Ortiz 150-1
Charl Schwartzel 150-1
Matt Kuchar 150-1
Ian Poulter 150-1
Matt Jones 150-1
Russell Henley 175-1
Francesco Molinari 175-1
Adam Hadwin 200-1
Zach Johnson 200-1
Lanto Griffin 200-1
Kevin Kisner 200-1
Brendon Todd 200-1
Bernd Wiesberger 200-1
Erik Van Rooyen 200-1
Wilco Nienaber 200-1
Mackenzie Hughes 250-1
Brendan Steele 250-1
Martin Laird 250-1
Victor Perez 250-1
Jhonattan Vegas 250-1
Henrik Stenson 250-1
Chez Reavie 250-1
J.T. Poston 250-1
Thomas Detry 250-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 250-1
Cameron Young 250-1
Guido Migliozzi 250-1
Martin Kaymer 250-1
Dylan Frittelli 250-1
Patrick Rodgers 300-1
Jordan Smith 300-1
Sung-Hoon Kang 300-1
Bo Hoag 300-1
Wyndham Clark 300-1
Yosuke Asaji 300-1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 300-1
Troy Merritt 300-1
Justin Suh 300-1

Tom Hoge 300-1
Adrian Meronk 350-1
Marcus Armitage 350-1
Ryo Ishikawa 400-1
Jimmy Walker 400-1
Peter Malnati 400-1
Edoardo Molinari 400-1
Brian Stuard 400-1
Richard Bland 400-1
Johannes Veerman 400-1
Taylor Pendrith 400-1
Greyson Sigg 400-1
John Huh 400-1
Matthew Southgate 500-1
Pierceson Coody 500-1
Sahith Theegala 500-1
Chan Kim 500-1
J.J. Spaun 500-1
Dylan Wu 500-1
Cole Hammer 500-1
Robby Shelton 500-1
Dave Coupland 500-1
Akshay Bhatia 500-1
Hayden Buckley 500-1
Thomas Aiken 500-1
Sam Ryder 500-1
Fabian Gomez 500-1
Taylor Montgomery 750-1
Ty Strafaci 750-1
Wade Ormsby 750-1
Zack Sucher 750-1
Matthias Schmid 750-1
Yosuke Asaji 1000-1
Hayden Springer 1000-1
Joe Long 1000-1
Rick Lamb 1000-1
Paul Barjon 1000-1
Luis Gagne 1000-1
Brad Kennedy 1000-1
Spencer Ralston 1000-1
Andrew Kozan 1000-1
Chris Baker 1000-1
Charles Osborne 1000-1
Luis Fernando Barco 1000-1
Rikuya Hoshino 1000-1
Dylan Meyer 1000-1
Andy Pope 1000-1
Alvaro Ortiz 1000-1
Eric Cole 1000-1
Zach Zaback 1000-1
Carson Schaake 1000-1
Michael Johnson 1500-1
Christopher Crawford 1500-1
Matthew Sharpstene 1500-1
Joe Highsmith 1500-1
Stephen Allan 2000-1
Wilson Furr 2000-1
Mario Carmona 2000-1
Roy Cootes 2000-1
Davis Shore 2000-1
Kyle Westmoreland 2000-1
James Hervol 2000-1 

CBS Sports Staff
2021-06-15 21:18:01

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