April 20, 2021

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2021 Valero Texas Open odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions from model that nailed six golf majors

4 min read

Since its inception in 1922, the Valero Texas Open has spent the past 99 years in the San Antonio area, making it the oldest professional golf tournament to be held in a single city. It is the third-oldest tournament on the PGA Tour and, though it has been played on many courses, it now calls TPC San Antonio home. The 2021 Valero Texas Open will tee off on Thursday, April 1 with the winner receiving $1.38 million and 500 FedEx Cup points. 

Dallas native Scottie Scheffler, who hopes to become the 20th native Texan to win the tournament, is listed at 16-1 in the 2021 Valero Texas Open odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Those odds are tied with Tony Finau (16-1) and trail only Jordan Spieth (12-1). Before locking in any 2021 Valero Texas Open picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour last June. In fact, it’s up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February, McClure nailed Daniel Berger’s win at +1400 in his best bets. McClure was also all over Viktor Hovland’s (+2500) victory in his best bets at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. That was one of many huge calls he’s made in the past few months. 

After nailing Sergio Garcia (+5500) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the Sanderson Farms Championship, McClure finished up over $6,200 yet again on his best bets in that tournament. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure’s best bets included Garcia winning outright. 

He also finished profitable at the U.S. Open, nailing two of his best bets, including a +1100 top-five bet on Matthew Wolff. In all, the advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns. 

Now that the 2021 Valero Texas Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

The model’s top 2021 Valero Texas Open predictions 

One huge shocker the model is calling for at the Valero Texas Open 2021: Jordan Spieth, an 11-time PGA Tour champion and the Vegas favorite, stumbles and barely cracks the top 10. The 27-year-old has seen a major resurgence in recent weeks, finishing inside the top-15 in four of his last five starts. He’s finished inside the top-five in three of those events, but he’s been unable to capture his 12th PGA Tour title. 

Spieth’s inability to finish on top of the leaderboard can be directly attributed to his driving accuracy percentage. In fact, Spieth enters this week’s event ranked 204th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy percentage (50.00), which doesn’t bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard this week. Plus, Spieth has not won a PGA Tour event since 2017. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Valero Texas Open 2021 field.

Another surprise: Ryan Palmer, a 28-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. Palmer has had recent success at this tournament and has a better shot at winning the 2021 Valero Texas Open than his odds imply.

Born in North Texas, Palmer has come close to winning the Valero Texas Open on a couple of occasions. From 2015-17, he placed sixth, fourth and sixth at the tournament and also has another top-10 finish in 2010.

With four career PGA Tour victories, Palmer has been so close at getting his fifth win at numerous events this season. Over his last nine starts, he has four top-10 finishes and two additional top-20 finishes. He’s doing this thanks to pinpoint accuracy in reaching the putting surface as his greens in regulation percentage of 70.76 ranks 18th on tour. Consistently putting himself in the best circumstances to succeed makes Palmer a low-risk, high-reward pick for 2021 Valero Texas Open bets.

How to make 2021 Valero Texas Open picks

Also, the model is targeting four other golfers with odds of 22-1 or higher to make a strong run at the title, including a monster long shot north of 40-1. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who wins the Valero Texas Open 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 Valero Texas Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed six golf majors and is up almost $10,000 since the restart, and find out. 

2021 Valero Texas Open odds (via William Hill)

Jordan Spieth 12-1
Scottie Scheffler 16-1
Tony Finau 16-1
Hideki Matsuyama 18-1
Corey Conners 22-1
Abraham Ancer 22-1
Ryan Palmer 28-1
Charley Hoffman 33-1
Brendan Steele 33-1
Chris Kirk 35-1
Cameron Davis 35-1
Cameron Tringale 35-1
Si-Woo Kim 35-1
Sam Burns 40-1
Zach Johnson 45-1
Lanto Griffin 45-1
Keegan Bradley 50-1
Matt Kuchar 50-1
Branden Grace 50-1
Ryan Moore 60-1
Joey Dahmen 60-1
Andrew Putnam 60-1
John Huh 60-1
Harold Varner 60-1
Harry Higgs 60-1
Rickie Fowler 60-1
Aaron Wise 66-1
Matt Wallace 66-1
Charles Howell 66-1
Adam Hadwin 66-1
Byeong Hun An 66-1
Sabastian Munoz 66-1
Sam Ryder 66-1
Denny McCarthy 70-1
Gary Woodland 70-1
Phil Mickelson 70-1
Erik Van Rooyen 70-1
Danny Willett 70-1
Sepp Straka 70-1

CBS Sports Staff
2021-03-31 19:24:10

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