If Johnson & Johnson and fellow vaccine makers Moderna and Pfizer meet their vaccine pledges, the bigger question we may soon be facing isn’t whether we have enough doses of Covid-19 vaccines, but whether people will actually take them.
Recent polling suggests a continued drop in the vaccine hesitant population as more and more people get vaccinated in the US.
While the percentage of hardline “get it only if required” or “definitely not” has remained fairly consistent at or just north of 20%, the hesitant population of “wait and see how it’s working” has dropped by nearly half during the last two months from 39% to 22%.
Like in the Kaiser polling, the hardline vaccine resistant population (i.e. people who say they will not get the vaccine or will only get it if forced) is basically the same size now (18%) as it was in September (23%) and early January (19%).
More people who say they will wait a period of time (a few weeks to a year or more) to get the vaccine has decreased rapidly: 64% in September, 51% in early December, 38% in early January and 28% now.
That’s why the next few months will be key. Given Johnson & Johnson’s one shot regimen and Pfizer and Moderna’s two-shot regimen, we are still a few months away from there being enough vaccines for everybody.
If the current vaccine delivery timeframes hold and the lionshare of vaccine hesitant people convert into those who will get the vaccine immediately, we could have enough vaccines for every adult who wants one even earlier than the end of May — and we’ll have a much better chance of containing the coronavirus.
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