SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
Location: 25.3°N 78.9°W
100 miles southeast of Fort Lauderdale, FL
85 miles south of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island
Moving: NW at 9 MPH / Min pressure: 993 MB
Max sustained winds: 70 MPH
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida
* Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* North of Ocean Reef to the south of Boca Raton Florida
* Lake Okeechobee
* Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 78.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Sunday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the southeast coast of Florida tonight and move near or along the east coast of Florida Sunday and Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic states.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast, and Isaias is expected to regain hurricane strength later tonight and early Sunday. Slow weakening is expected to begin Sunday night and continue through Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island, recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h). An unofficial observing station in Ft. Lauderdale Beach recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 993 MB (29.32 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL…2-4 ft
North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida on Sunday and will spread northward through Sunday night. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in South Florida tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in northeast Florida by Sunday night and are possible in the watch area from northeast Florida to South Carolina on Monday.
RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations:
Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches.
Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.
Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.
Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches.
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches.
Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.
Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.
SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast through Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Category: ALL POSTS, Severe Weather, Tropical
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