In a season where underdogs are 82-65 against the spread, NFL odds have been tightening each week. In fact, the latest Week 11 NFL spreads from William Hill Sportsbook include just two lines of more than eight points. The Chargers are just 2-7 straight-up, but they’re 5-4 against the spread and now listed as 9.5-point favorites over the lowly Jets, one of the largest NFL Vegas lines of the week.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati vs. Washington is currently the tightest line of the week, with the Bengals listed as one-point underdogs on the road in the current Week 11 NFL Vegas spreads. All of the Week 11 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 11 NFL picks now.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,800 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago.
It’s a sizzling 18-9 on top-rated NFL picks this season, already returning over $800. The model enters Week 11 on an incredible 114-73 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Additionally, the model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, it has examined the latest Week 11 NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.
Top NFL predictions for Week 11
One of the top Week 11 NFL picks the model recommends: the Browns cover comfortably at home against the Eagles as three-point favorites. After missing four games with a knee injury, Browns running back Nick Chubb returned from injured reserve last week and rushed for 126 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Texans.
The model predicts that Chubb and fellow running back Kareem Hunt will combine to rush for over 135 yards and a touchdown against Philadelphia. Meanwhile, a Browns defense that has given up just 23 total points and 552 yards in its last two games will record three sacks and force two turnovers. That’s why the model’s simulations have the Browns covering well over 50 percent of the time, with the under (47.5) hitting well over half the time as well.
Another one of the top Week 11 NFL predictions from the model: The Chargers (-9.5) cover at home against the New York Jets. This line opened at -10 and has moved down a key point, boosting L.A.’s chances of covering.
The model has considered that New York has struggled mightily on offense, ranking last in the NFL in total offense (266 yards per game) and scoring offense (13.4 points per game).
With quarterback Sam Darnold (shoulder) out again, the Jets don’t reach 20 points in the simulations, opening the door for Los Angeles, which has averaged 29 points per game in its last six outings, to pick up a double-digit win. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert throws for well over 300 yards and two touchdowns as Los Angeles covers in more than 50 percent of simulations. Those numbers also help push the game over the total (46).
How to make Week 11 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on every other game on the Week 11 NFL schedule, and has identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard. You can only get every pick for every game here.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 11? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,800 on its top-rated NFL picks.
NFL odds, matchups for Week 11
Sunday, Nov. 22
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 49)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Washington Football Team (-1, 46.5)
Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers (-3)
New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans (+2, 49)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cleveland Browns (-3, 47.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+10.5, 46)
Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6, 49.5)
Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 51.5)
New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5, 46)
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos (+3.5, 45.5)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings (-7, 48)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5, 57)
Monday, Nov. 23
Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 48)
CBS Sports Staff
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