November 24, 2020

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Saints vs. Falcons odds, line: 2020 NFL picks, Week 11 predictions from proven projection model

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Get ready for an NFC South battle as the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons will face off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. New Orleans is 7-2 overall and 4-1 at home, while Atlanta is 3-6 overall and 2-2 on the road. New Orleans is favored by 3.5 points in the latest Saints vs. Falcons odds from William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under is set at 49. Before entering any Falcons vs. Saints picks, you’ll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,800 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 18-9 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning over $800. The model also enters Week 11 on an incredible 114-74 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Saints vs. Falcons. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for Falcons vs. Saints:

  • Saints vs. Falcons spread: Saints -3,5
  • Saints vs. Falcons over-under: 49 points
  • Saints vs. Falcons money line: New Orleans -175, Atlanta 155

Latest Odds:

Falcons
+3.5

Why the Saints can cover

The Saints scored their sixth consecutive win when they beat the San Francisco 49ers this past Sunday, 27-13. Alvin Kamara punched in two rushing touchdowns in addition to catching seven passes for one TD and 83 yards. He has 17 games with two-plus TDs, tied for the second-most by a player in his first four seasons in NFL history. Kamara has 80-plus scrimmage yards in four of his past five games vs. Atlanta. He ranks second in the NFL in scrimmage yards (1,134) and scrimmage TDs (11).

Drew Brees (ribs) was placed on injured reserve, and Taysom Hill will make his first career start in Week 11. Michael Thomas has 64 receptions for 777 yards (97.1 per game) and three TDs in eight career games vs. Atlanta. He needs two receptions to surpass Jarvis Landry (481) for the most receptions by a player in his first five seasons in NFL history. Cameron Jordan had a career-high four sacks in the last meeting. He has two-plus sacks in four of his past five games vs. Atlanta. Jordan has 18 sacks in 18 games vs. Atlanta. Sean Payton has an 18-8 record vs. the Falcons. 

Why the Falcons can cover

Meanwhile, the Falcons picked up a 34-27 victory over the Denver Broncos two weeks ago for their third win in four games. Matt Ryan passed for three TDs and 284 yards on 35 attempts. He has 300-plus passing yards in three of his past four games vs. the Saints. Ryan is aiming for his fifth game in row vs. New Orleans with two-plus TD passes. He has 2,746 pass yards in 2020 and needs 254 passing yards to become the fourth quarterback in NFL history with 3,000+ pass yards in 12 of his first 13 seasons.

Julio Jones is aiming for his third game in a row on the road with seven receptions and 125 yards. He has 140-plus yards in two of his past three vs. the Saints. Jones has 840 career receptions and needs 10 catches to become the fourth wide receiver with 850 receptions in his first 10 seasons. Calvin Ridley (foot) is expected to play after being out of action since Week 8. The Falcons have won four of the past five meetings with the Saints. 

How to make Falcons vs. Saints picks

The model has simulated Saints vs. Falcons 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Falcons vs. Saints? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Saints spread to jump on Sunday, all from the model that enters Week 11 of the NFL season on an incredible 114-74 roll. 

Scout Staff


2020-11-21 11:14:02


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