Summer-like heat fuels another Midwest severe weather event

Some of the larger cities that need to be keenly aware of the severe weather potential include Minneapolis/St. Paul in Minnesota, Omaha in Nebraska, Sioux City in Iowa, and to a lesser extent Des Moines, Iowa. Even though all hazards are on the table, including tornadoes, the greatest risk appears to be damaging straight-line winds and large hail.

“Well-organized severe storms are expected to evolve from the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota southward into the central Plains Thursday,” said the SPC.

Who and when the severe weather strikes is dependent on the evolution of the storm system moving through the Central US.

Timing of storms dependent on two factors

As a warm front lifts northward across the Plains, the sticky air mass that settles in and the daytime heating from the sun will help induce thunderstorm development into the early afternoon hours. If these storms begin to rotate, a tornado could spawn at any time. However, the main event occurs when the trailing cold front sweeps through the region by the evening and overnight hours.

“Thursday will have every ingredient necessary to have significant severe storms in the upper Midwest,” explains CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “We have near record-breaking heat, high humidity, a warm front, a cold front and an upper level low aligning to make a volatile day.”

Weather computer models are in agreement that a strong line of storms will push through eastern Nebraska and South Dakota around dinner time, advancing eastward across Minnesota just after dusk.

Peak of tornado season

Regardless of statistics and monthly averages, the SPC is able to identify areas that are at greatest risk of severe weather.

Just like the forecast for Thursday, conditions are favorable for severe weather development — but this does not necessarily mean you will experience damaging winds, large hail or tornadoes.