Perhaps the biggest takeaway is that the people who aren’t answering polls are systematically different than those who do answer the polls. This is likely the case among White voters without a college degree. Additionally, voters who were less likely to turn out but still did seemed to favor former President Donald Trump at higher levels than expected.
Instead, it was likely the case that the people who weren’t answering polls in places where a lot of non-college White voters resided had different political beliefs than those who did answer the polls.
The reasons why the people who picked up the phones differed is up for discussion. The Democratic pollsters suggested two potential reasons that seem plausible.
If you follow this line of thinking, the White voters without a college degree who do participate in polls are more likely to back Democratic candidates than this demographic as a whole. Allowing this subsection to stand in for all White voters without a college degree simply won’t make up for the problem of the polls not capturing those who don’t participate.
These general patterns hold, even when controlling for education levels and race.
The last big takeaway was that the people who did turn out and weren’t expected to were far more likely to be Republican than these pollsters thought.
While accounting for every individual pollster’s individual turnout expectations is difficult, the Democratic pollsters’ belief does fit overarching narratives.
Biden won by 1 point among voters 25 years and older, according to the exit polls. I zone in on this group because at least by age, every voter in this group was eligible to vote in 2016.
When we look at just those voters 25 years and older that say they didn’t vote in 2016, Trump won by 3 points.
If pollsters thought that the higher turnout would benefit Biden, they were likely solely mistaken.
The question obviously now is where to go from here. Obviously, pollsters will continue to spend a lot of time looking over the data. Two elections in a row where Trump was underestimated is not a good thing for the pollster profession.
Still, keep in mind that in most races and on most issues, voters aren’t split nearly down the middle. The national polls overestimated Biden’s margin by less than 4 points. If someone or some issue is as popular as Biden is today (about 15 points more of the public approves than disapproves), you can be pretty sure that is real and not an artifact of a polling error.
All news and articles are copyrighted to the respective authors and/or News Broadcasters. LC is an independent Online News Aggregator
Read more from original source here…