May 19, 2024

News and Political Commentary

$1.7 trillion chip giant Nvidia just gained over $100 billion in value after a blowout quarter, but this mega-bearish analyst says the tech industry is in an AI bubble

2 min read

Investors have long had a love affair with U.S. tech stocks from the boom cycle of the late ‘90s and early 2000s that famously ended with the dotcom crash, to the AI-induced heights of Nvidia’s current stock rally. Love affairs, though, often end badly, and this one could leave investors nursing both an aching wallet and a broken heart. Artificial intelligence has officially thrust the U.S. tech industry into a bubble and Silicon Valley could be on the precipice of another crash, according to an analyst note from BCA Research chief strategist Dhaval Joshi.

“We are in an AI bubble,” Joshi tells Fortune. “We’ve been wowed by some of the results.”

Few stocks embodied that wow factor like the $1.7 trillion AI chip giant Nvidia, which reported earnings on Wednesday, blowing analyst expectations out of the water. The chipmaker—dubbed “the most important stock on planet earth,” by a Goldman Sachs analyst—reported revenues of $22.1 billion during the last quarter, compared to a forecast of $20.6 billion. Revenues for the company’s data center chips, used in AI models and generative AI applications, reflected increased demand and reached $18.4 billion, up 27% from the third quarter and 409% compared to last year. Stock prices rose 7% in post-market trading, adding over $100 billion of value.

“Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point,” said Nvidia founder and chief executive Jensen Huang in a press release. “Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations.”

While Joshi didn’t comment on Nvidia specifically, its outstanding results can be seen as evidence for his case.

The tech sector is trading at a 75% premium to the global stock market, according to Joshi’s calculations in an analyst note published last week. Its scorching-hot growth became the backbone on which much of the rest of the U.S. stock market’s growth was built and drove the Nasdaq to near record highs last year, just 6.5% off its…



2024-02-21 20:45:14

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