A Biden win would be no miracle cure

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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The difference between a Donald Trump or Joe Biden victory in November could be the future of the US republic. But it does not follow that a Biden second term would bring an end to America’s political malaise.

His victory would likely be narrow, declared stolen by Trump, and involve a loss of Democratic control of the US Senate. It would be a leap of faith to think that an ageing second-term Biden grappling with still more gridlock could break the Republican fever. The chances are reasonable that in the countdown to 2028, America would re-experience today’s sense of dread. 

That is the choice facing US voters in ten months. It is still open and shut. Trump leaves no doubt that he would use the full gamut of presidential powers and find new ones to punish his enemies and reward friends. It would be foolish to think he is joking when he promises to be a dictator for one day and put US troops on the streets.

The lesson of Trump’s first term is to take him seriously. A lot of legal planning has gone into what he would do in his second. It would thus be negligent to assume the US constitutional order would survive a retributionist Trump. 

That is the predicate. A Biden win would mean America lives to fight another day; there is no guarantee that it would win that day. Given the Manichean nature of America’s choice, it is understandable that people find it hard to see beyond the blinding catharsis of a Trump defeat.

For what it is worth, I think the odds of that are better than what the bookies are offering. Trump is entering a world of judicial hell. Last week he was fined $83.3mn in damages for libelling a sexual assault victim. This week he could be banned from doing business in New York and fined at least another $350mn for misstating his financial assets. Then come the criminal trials. There are probably convictions on the way. 

The…