can Joe Biden beat Donald Trump again?

At the Wisconsin Black Chamber of Commerce, in the heart of one of America’s politically pivotal swing states, Joe Biden spoke proudly of his record in office — one he hopes will propel him to re-election in 2024.

“All this groundbreaking work is producing groundbreaking results: record job creation, historic economic growth,” the president told the audience in the predominantly African-American neighbourhood of Milwaukee in mid-December. “We have among the lowest inflation rates of any major economy on this Earth.”

The economic data that Biden hailed has been one of the highlights of the year for the White House — inflation has eased, a recession was avoided, equity markets are near record highs, and even consumer sentiment is bouncing back.

Yet politically, the picture for Biden has darkened as he prepares to plunge into what is likely to be a fiercely contested re-election battle, most likely against former president Donald Trump — a race that already appears to be too close for comfort for many Democrats.

Just 39 per cent of Americans approve of Biden’s performance, according to the 538.com polling average, while 55 per cent disapprove — a 16 percentage point gap that has almost doubled since the start of 2023. Biden is also trailing Trump in polling for a general election match-up, according to the Realclearpolitics.com average.

The president’s struggles have triggered a whirlwind of discussion among Democrats about his capacity to win re-election next year — and whether anyone can do anything to change the dynamic.

Charlie Cook, a veteran non-partisan political analyst, said there were unnerving signs for Democrats that voters have soured on Biden for good, with little that the White House or the campaign will be able to do to shift sentiment.

Biden’s approval ratings have been stubbornly negative for more than two years, since the late summer of 2021, Cook emphasised. “There seems to be virtually no elasticity there,” he said….