El-Erian, Krugman and other top economists voice China opinions

China’s economy is sputtering.

Its property market is crumbling, deflationary pressures are spreading across the nation, and its stock market has weathered a turbulent ride so far this year, with the country’s CSI 300 index erasing some 40% of its value from its 2021 peaks.

Adding salt to the wound, January PMI numbers released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth month in a row, driven by slumping demand. 

The slew of downbeat data has consequently triggered a wave of skepticism toward the world’s second-largest economy. Allianz for one, reversed its buoyant view of China, now forecasting Beijing’s economy to grow by an average 3.9% between 2025 to 2029. That’s down from a 5% forecast before the Covid-19 pandemic broke out.

Ex-International Monetary Fund official Eswar Prasad also told Nikkei Asia that “the likelihood of the prediction that China’s GDP will one day overtake that of the U.S. is declining.” 

Meanwhile, top economist and Allianz advisor Mohamed El-Erian highlighted China’s dismal stock market performance against those in the U.S. and Europe in a chart on X, saying it shows the stark divergence between all three equity markets.

China itself, however, isn’t willing to confess its economy is in tatters. Chinese leader Xi Jinping said on New Year’s Eve that the nation’s economy had grown “more resilient and dynamic this year.”

Feeding on such optimism, it’s fair to say there’s been some signs of hope for the beleaguered economy, but perhaps not enough to sway the bears. For instance, factory activity in China expanded for a third-straight month in January, while the nation’s luxury sector appears to be snapping back. 

Such data has prompted bullish…