Era of ‘peace dividend’ is over, says UK defence secretary

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Britain’s defence secretary has said the post-cold war “peace dividend” is over and that western countries need to prepare for further conflicts involving China, Russia, North Korea and Iran over the next five years.

Grant Shapps warned on Monday that the world had moved to a “prewar” phase and that the Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts had struck at the heart of the world order, as he called on allies to lift defence spending to meet the rising threat.

“The era of peace dividend is over,” said Shapps in a speech at Lancaster House in London, where he set out his priorities for 2024. “In five years’ time, we could be looking at multiple theatres [of conflict] involving Russia, China, Iran, North Korea.

“Looking at today’s conflicts across the world, is it more likely that the number grows or reduces? I suspect we all know the answer — it’s likely to grow,” he added.

The peace dividend that followed the end of the cold war enabled politicians to spend billions on health and education instead of their armed forces.

But Shapps said that period had ended, with enemies of the west rearming themselves and each other.

They had also become “more connected” and “more unstable”, and possessed a “wider array of weapons to wreak havoc”, he said, citing Russia’s use of North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine and Iran’s provision of military support and intelligence to the Islamist Houthi rebels in Yemen.

“We find ourselves at the dawn of a new era . . . moving from a postwar to a prewar world,” Shapps said. “Old enemies are being reanimated. New foes are taking shape . . . the foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core.”

While all 31 members of Nato are notionally committed to spend 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence, only 11 do so at present, according…