FT writers’ predictions for the world in 2024

The Financial Times’s team of crystal ball gazers had their best year for a while in 2023, with only three wrong answers — though we got these pretty wrong. The S&P 500 did not fall by more than 10 per cent, but climbed over 20 per cent (though driven mostly by just seven tech stocks). Europe didn’t experience blackouts, though we said this would happen only in a very cold winter (it wasn’t). And there wasn’t a string of defaults in Africa, though Ethiopia did default this week.

It says much about the world that, for a third year running, we feature questions on war or military action this year — between Israel and Hamas, Russia and Ukraine and, perhaps, between China and Taiwan. The big calls seem ever harder to make. But on the question more FT staff suggested than any other — will Donald Trump be president? — Edward Luce agreed to venture his best guess. Read on to find out!

A record 17 readers tied on 19 correct answers in our competition. Congratulations to Richard Barnes of London, overall winner after the tiebreaker. We invite readers again to submit answers to this year’s 20 questions and tiebreaker, giving their real name and email. Happy New Year! Neil Buckley

FT readers: submit your predictions for 2024

Will Donald Trump become US president again?

No. But — assuming the recent legal hurdles thrown up against Trump standing in Colorado and Maine are overcome — his campaign against Joe Biden will be the nastiest presidential election in US history.

It will be very close run. Trump will be criminally convicted in at least one of his four trials, probably two, before the election, and will present it as political persecution by the “Biden crime family”. Though visibly ageing, Biden will squeak through, more because a narrow majority will be rejecting Trump than endorsing a Biden second term. Edward Luce

Will 2024 surpass 2023 as the hottest year on record?

Yes. The year 2023 was marked by so many scorching heat extremes that it will…