Germany set for 14% drop in electric-vehicle sales

Onstage, Transport Minister Volker Wissing was preaching to the crowd of policymakers and industry executives about the importance of “technological openness” in reducing transit emissions.

A singular focus on battery-powered vehicles by policymakers and manufacturers is leaving Germany’s most important industry exposed, he said, with a forecast of slumping EV demand in Europe’s biggest car market hanging over his message.

Zipse has been making that same point for years, advocating for flexible production lines for combustion, hybrid and even hydrogen-powered cars. His cautious strategy — which chimes with his predecessor’s — was attacked as not aggressive enough on challenging electric leader Tesla Inc.

Now, Zipse appeared to have seen into the future. With EV adoption slowing and plug-in hybrids making a return from the sidelines, BMW’s careful approach no longer looks like such a bad idea.

“In Germany, demand for electric vehicles does not look good this year,” said Jan Burgard, head of automotive consultant Berylls strategy advisors. “The upper end of the EV market is almost saturated, and there is little on offer in the lower-end €25,000 segment.”

After years of surging growth, selling EVs is becoming tougher. Generous government incentives are disappearing in Europe and fewer vehicles qualify for them in the US. While a range of new models and commitment-light leasing options have attracted the attention of electric enthusiasts, some years into the EV revolution, infrastructure and price still remain roadblocks to widespread adoption.

In Germany, sales are set to drop 14% this year in response to the government yanking subsidies in December, the first decline since 2016, according to the VDA lobbying group. Globally, market watchers have…