how a skills shortage could hit Ukraine’s battlefield

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The writer is adviser to Gallos Technologies, and author of ‘Goodbye Globalization’

History shows that when the political class ignore the fortunes of manual workers, it often comes back to bite them. This is still true today. Since the ratcheting of military conflict both in Ukraine and the Middle East, governments are investing a lot more in defence — the problem is that there aren’t enough skilled workers to keep up with demand.

When Stefan Löfven was elected to Sweden’s top political post in October 2014, some observers found it amusing that the Social Democrat leader had begun his career as a welder. Those patronising Löfven’s manufacturing background seemed unaware that welding involves advanced skills. Indeed, good welders are indispensable in the manufacturing of defence equipment, and that’s where Löfven had earned his keep, as an employee of the Swedish company Hägglund & Söner (which is now part of BAE Systems). Then again, arms-making expertise was not at a premium in 2014. 

How times have changed. Last year, defence equipment expenditures among Nato’s European member states and Canada soared by 24.9 per cent. Nato allies now spend a median of 27.8 per cent of their defence budgets on equipment. (Poland and Finland spend more than half). Other countries, too, are investing in weaponry: Australia is upgrading its submarine fleet to nuclear-powered vessels under the Aukus pact with Britain and the US.

But defence manufacturers are struggling to find the necessary welders, electricians and other skilled workers. “The biggest risk facing the nuclear-powered Aukus submarine build is whether enough skilled welders can be recruited and trained,” the Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter warned in March 2023, one and a half years after the pact was announced. The same problems are being felt in European defence firms….