How many homes does England really need to build?

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England needs as many as half a million new homes a year to keep up with the country’s rising population, according to a Financial Times analysis — far more than either the Conservatives or Labour have pledged to deliver.

An unexpected boom in the population due to record levels of migration, combined with rising domestic demand and a historic undersupply of homes has left both major parties falling short with their housing targets.

The analysis, which drew on migration projections for 2023-2036, estimated that 421,000 new homes per year would be needed over the period. The number could be as high as 529,000 if current net migration levels hold.

The government’s current target is for 300,000 homes per year, a goal it has failed to reach in recent years. The opposition Labour party has promised to hit the same level on average over the next parliament if it wins power. But housing experts and economists said the targets needed to be more ambitious.

“We need to be aiming higher,” said Paul Cheshire, professor emeritus of economic geography at the London School of Economics.

Levelling up secretary Michael Gove has stuck with the government’s commitment, despite criticism that proposed reforms to boost house building will fail to address shortages.

Labour has in effect matched the target, pledging to build 1.5mn homes over five years if they win the general election expected this year, while acknowledging that delivery would be below 300,000 a year initially. 

The party said the target was “ambitious but achievable” but acknowledged continuing challenges including low historical building supply and limited land availability.

Cheshire said the 300,000 ambition had “stuck in the political narrative” because it was a “handy round number” rather than “a scientific number”.

The FT analysis used the methodology from a 2018 report…