2024 is set to be a major election year, with over 75 countries heading to the polls. The Economist Intelligence Unit says that more than four billion people — or over half of the world’s population — live in countries with elections expected this year. These range from the U.K. and the U.S., to Russia, India, Turkey and beyond. “I think any election is interesting right now, and we know that because of what happened in 2023,” Steen Jakobsen, chief investment officer at Saxo Bank, told CNBC Pro, referencing the election outcome in Argentina . The country surprised markets by voting in Trump-admiring populist Javier Milei — along with his radical economic policies — by a wider-than-expected margin. Steen expects more of the same this year: “For 2024, it seems that most of the voters are looking for anti-establishment.” While it’s hard to predict how elections will impact markets, analysts say the votes in key markets such as the U.S. are, of course, the ones to watch. “The outcome of the elections will probably only affect the domestic stock markets in most countries,” Lawrence Loh, business school professor at the National University of Singapore (NUS), said. “The big one that everyone is watching is the U.S., but it is also hard to say how that will swing markets because it is happening in almost a year’s time,” added Loh, who is also a director at the university’s Centre for Governance and Sustainability. CNBC Pro did a deep dive into five elections — Taiwan, Indonesia, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States — to assess how the potential outcomes could affect both domestic and global stock markets. Taiwan Coming up on Jan. 13 is Taiwan’s presidential elections , which will see a three-cornered race between the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te and opposition members Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party and Hou Yu-ih from Kuomintang. The outcome has the potential to impact testy U.S.-China relations and…
2023-12-31 20:32:00
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