Nato has no choice but to strengthen its bulwarks against Putin

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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The writer is the director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin

A growing number of senior Nato officials are warning of a direct military confrontation between Europe and Russia in the not-so-distant future. The Kremlin denies any intention of attacking Nato, dismissing the idea as fear-mongering to the benefit of western militaries and defence manufacturers.

Certainly, assaulting the most powerful military alliance in history would have catastrophic consequences for Russia. The problem is that two years ago, invading Ukraine was also counterproductive to Moscow’s security interests and yet Vladimir Putin has opted for this course. The president’s increasingly dark tunnel vision on the war is now the gravest risk to European — and Russian — security.

Putin’s mistaken prediction on the odds of subjugating Ukraine in a swift “special military operation” led to disastrous action. Yet after painful defeats and costly adjustments, Russia appears to have the advantage in the looming war of attrition. The Russian president, so fond of second world war parallels, believes he is now in the same position as Joseph Stalin at the end of 1942: the toughest battles may still be ahead, but the trajectory points to victory.

In the first year of war, some of the Russian elite privately challenged Putin’s wisdom. Now these whispering doubters have been silenced completely, helped by the fiery end met by mercenary-turned-mutineer Yevgeny Prigozhin and, this week, the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in prison. With Putin set to extend his presidential mandate by another six years next month, it’s hard to see any obstacle in the ageing leader’s path if he chooses to raise the stakes in what he views as an existential confrontation between Russia and the west.

Putin describes the war not as against Ukraine, but as against Nato…