The delicate geopolitical balance around Taiwan

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The victory in Taiwan’s presidential election of Lai Ching-te — a man Beijing has described as a dangerous separatist — gives the ruling Democratic Progressive party (DPP) an unprecedented third term in office. On the eve of the polls, China’s People’s Liberation Army warned that it remained “on high alert to smash ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist plots in any form”. But Lai’s win broadly represents an endorsement for continuity from Tsai Ing-wen, who has held office since 2016.

In their initial statements after the elections, both Beijing and Lai sounded a relatively conciliatory tone. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said it would “work with relevant political parties, groups and people from all walks of life in Taiwan to promote cross-strait exchanges and co-operation”. Lai, for his part, appealed to Beijing to find ways to reduce tensions. In a news conference, he recognised an “important responsibility to maintain peace and stability” with China.

Such moderation is welcome. The tensions across the Taiwan Strait, the 180km body of water that separates the island from China, make this one of the world’s most dangerous flashpoints. Beijing claims Taiwan as part of its territory and threatens to attack it if Taipei resists unification indefinitely. The DPP refuses to define Taiwan as part of China.

Yet in spite of the responsible initial rhetoric, the inflammatory nature of regional geopolitics remains unchanged. Beijing’s restraint, as well as the fortitude and balance of Lai’s administration, are set to encounter multiple and persistent tests. Both sides, as well as governments in the west, should clearly recognise the “red lines” in cross-straits relations and avoid crossing them in word or deed.

An early such test was the expected arrival in Taipei late on Sunday of a high-level US delegation of…