U.S.-China relations are now more about crisis prevention

BEIJING — After another rocky year of U.S.-China tensions, the two countries’ presidents are set to meet this week in person for the second time since Joe Biden took office.

It will be a rare summit before the U.S. presidential election cycle kicks off in earnest. Taking a tough stance on China, the second-largest economy in the world, has become one of the few areas of bipartisan agreement. Biden plans to run for reelection.

“The focus will be on expanding dialogue in order to low[er] tail risks in the relationship and prevent a crisis that neither leader is looking for,” said Michael Hirson, head of China Research at 22V Research.

“Flashpoints such as Taiwan and the South China Sea need to be managed carefully,” he said. “For that reason the meeting is still important, especially ahead of a politically charged 2024 that will begin with an important presidential election in Taiwan in January and end with the U.S. presidential election.”

U.S.-China tensions have escalated over the last several years, beginning with tariffs under the Trump administration and spilling over into broader tech restrictions under the Biden administration.

Controversy in early February over an alleged Chinese spy balloon flying in U.S. airspace revealed how fragile relations have become — the incident pushed the two countries to suspend already limited high-level talks.

In April, during that period of estrangement, Washington, D.C.-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies published a report that described U.S.-China relations as seemingly “caught in a worsening vicious cycle.”

“This translates into a stalemate—and, in fact, spiraling tensions—that go even further than the typical ‘security dilemma,’ in which each side takes steps to defend itself which in turn generate…