What could happen in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024?

At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive — expected to be launched in the spring — would change the dial in the war against Russia.

It didn’t, and the prospect of a breakthrough in 2024 is also unlikely, military experts and defense analysts told CNBC.

They predict intense fighting is likely to continue into the next year but say Kyiv’s forces are unlikely to launch any more counteroffensives. Russia, meanwhile, is likely to focus on consolidating the territory it has already seized, particularly in eastern Ukraine.

Away from the battlefield, military experts said that the trajectory the Russia-Ukraine war takes in 2024 will mostly be dictated thousands of miles away in the U.S., Ukraine’s largest military supporter, and whether aid declines in the run-up — and following — the U.S. presidential election.

“War is an uncertain endeavor,” retired Army Lt. General Stephen Twitty, former deputy commander of U.S. European Command, told CNBC.

“Russia can win the war, or the Ukrainians can win the war. And, as you’re seeing things now, if you really think about it, what has been achieved this year? Very little has been achieved by Russia, and you can say the same thing for the Ukrainians,” he said.

“We’re in this situation now where if there’s not a clear winner, there’s going to be a stalemate, and there’s going to be, perhaps, a future frozen conflict. What can tilt the balance, in my view, is if the Ukrainians are not resupplied and they’re not re-funded and they don’t get the equipment and people that they need. Then this war could tilt to the…