Bitcoin is approaching a major technical event in April 2024 known as “halving.” Many investors expect this closely watched event to be a catalyst for price rallies since the cryptocurrency has been programmed to cut the supply of new bitcoin created and awarded to miners by 50% roughly every four years. Following the previous three halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020, the coin saw triple-digit percentage gains or more by the end of the following year, according to data provided by CCData . The chart below shows bitcoin price returns in the days following a halving event. However, the data also shows that bitcoin’s post-halving performance has been mixed in the short term. In the two months following historical halvings, bitcoin returns averaged around 16% — not a significant gain relative to the crypto’s volatility throughout the year. After the first halving on Nov. 28, 2012, bitcoin rallied by nearly 45%. But after the second halving on July 9, 2016, prices were lower by 5.5%, data from CCData shows. “Historical data shows that bitcoin has typically experienced significant price breakouts and high returns following halving events,” Jacob Joseph, research analyst at CCData, told CNBC Pro . “However, this trend is not guaranteed, as demonstrated during the second bitcoin halving cycle, when prices remained subdued for about three months.” On a relative basis, bitcoin also underperformed its rival cryptocurrency, ethereum, following the 2016 and 2020 events, according to research by Citi. This suggests that outperformance compared to overall market gains has been challenging to predict around halvings. BTC.CM= YTD line The Wall Street bank also found a similarly mixed picture for Litecoin, another cryptocurrency with halving events similar to bitcoin’s. Following Litecoin’s last three halvings in 2015, 2019 and 2023, the coin either tracked historical returns or significantly underperformed them. “When determining whether halvings have any bearing on returns,…